Ghosts of Joe Slovo

Lots of people make predictions about the outcomes of primaries, some of whom have actually done things like poll prospective voters, others who have crunched demographics, and still others who have crunched lots of polling data.

And then there's me. Going on nothing but gut instinct and cursory blog-entry-reading.

So I'm breaking my weeks-long silence to regale ya'll with my primary predictions:

NC: Obama by 8-10 points, say 54 or 55 to Clinton's 46 or 45.
IN: Clinton by 5 points, say 52.5 to Obama's 47.5.

Until the Rev. Wright decided to do his Buffoonery 2008 Tour I thought maybe Indiana could break for Obama, but not now. And in all fairness to Rev. Wright, if Obama had used the opportunity of his "bitter" comment to actually hammer home a populist economic theme that spoke directly to working class anxiety over the economy and the future, it wouldn't have mattered what the good Reverend was on about.

But that is the pitfall of leaving your economic messaging to University of Chicago economists.

Kick ass and get out the vote.

Okay, first off, I'd be happy if the Dems picked either of the two people currently kicking the shit out of each other. I'd prefer Obama, not necessarily from a policy perspective, since his articulated policies are clearly the less progressive, but because of the way he's running for President. He's investing huge amounts of money and effort in training his staff and volunteers in the basics of organizing and he's running his campaign as if it were a giant community organizing effort. This will have ramifications for the next generation of progressive work and substantially builds progressive infrastructure, which can then be used to kick a little right-wing ass.

My bias is front and center in this. So take that into consideration when I say that I'm fairly disappointed with Clinton's campaign right now. Choosing to go with the red phone ad, which plays into people's fears and insecurities, in effect scaring them into voting for her, is, to my mind, unethical in this particular primary race. It's not dirty, it's not harsh, but it is unethical.

Why? Because it accepts the GOP frame on this election: that is is the 3rd security election (2002, 2004, 2008 - 2006 was clearly about the direction of the country and the meltdown of the Republicans) and the decision should be made on who the next Commander In Chief should be.

Well, first of all, thanks for appealing to the most primitive and base part of a person's emotional make-up as you try to make your case. Second, do you seriously think that the Dems can compete on CIC issues running against a former GOP prisoner of war who was tortured? Third, there is a golden opportunity to make this election about economic issues, effectively reframing "security" to include economic security. Do that and you win. Do this red phone business and you lose.

The winning contrast for the Democrats in November will not be between relative competancies in dealing with military threats, it will be between those who speak for people who are hurting and for people who are energized by the idea of a new direction for the country and those who want a 3rd Bush Presidency run by a guy who went to high school with Methusalah. 

That's why I'm disappointed in Clinton right now and find myself actually dreading a drawn-out primary contest. It only gets bloodier from here and, not to only blame Clinton in all this, Obama needs to add some economic populism to his message of hope and post-partisanship (and he can start that by giving the heave-ho to all those U of Chicago economic advisors) because he's not going to win as a Democrat appleaing only to the well-educated, the young, and the economically well off. (See also, Latino Vote, Winning the.) Seriously, dude, use that soaring rhetoric to channel your inner Paul Wellstone.

That's all.

Kick ass and watch the primary season of a thouand cuts grind on.

I mentioned the other day that the ACORN PAC might be making an endorsement this week. Well, they did.

On Wednesday night, ACORN Votes, the ACORN PAC, endorsed Barack Obama for President.

ACORN President Maude Hurd had this to say,

“Last night, Sen. Obama received more than the two-thirds majority needed from our elected national leadership to secure the endorsement. Over the past months, we have worked with all leading candidates. ACORN’s members have deep appreciation and respect for Senators Clinton and Edwards and their work on behalf of our communities. What it came down to was that Senator Obama is the candidate who best understands and can effect change on the issues ACORN cares about like stopping foreclosures, enacting fair and comprehensive immigration reform, and building stronger and safer communities across America.”

ACORN's membership is probably about 35% Latino and 65% African-American. I don't think this will have much effect in Texas, since Texas ACORN's presence is concentrated in a few areas. But this could have a major impact on African-American turnout in Ohio, where ACORN has a major presence and a demonstrated track record in moving state-wide issues and conducting statewide voter contact programs. ACORN ran the field for the 2006 Ohio Minimum Wage ballot measure and reached between 250K and 350K largely African-American voters.

I would expect that this means that ACORN members will hit the streets for Obama immediately in Ohio (and Texas, but more in Ohio). Down the line this could mean more boots on the ground in places like Pennsylvania as well.

Interesting.

Kick ass and take names.

Word on the street is that ACORN, which has massive field capacity amongst low and moderate income voters and communities of color in Ohio and Pennsylvania, might be making a Presidential endorsement this week, Wednesday at the earliest. 

The organization's membership has been divided amongst the Big Three on the Democratic side, reflecting how voters voting in Democratic primaries have broken down nationally. But with Edwards out and the fight down to two, with only a few big states remaining, it looks like there is mounting support to pick a candidate. The winning candidate needs two-thirds support of the voting membership and no one's willing to go on record as to who the membership is supporting.

My own guess is Obama, but Clinton has always played well with ACORN's membership and NY ACORN members are especially fierce in their support. They could move the rest of the voting leadership or gather enough votes to block any endorsement at all.

This is particularly important for the endorsee in Ohio because of ACORN's demostrated ability to reach voters in majority minority districts, last seen in 2006's election when they ran the field for the minimum wage ballot initiative and reached well over 250,000 voters with multiple contacts over a 6 week period.

We'll see what happens...

Kick ass and take names.

See how I title these posts so the uninterested can keep on truckin'?

See how that leaves me with the same two loyal readers? (Thanks, ya'll.)

Quick questions:

Does John Edwards endorse? If he does endorse, does he do it before March 4? If he endorses before the delegate count for either candidate is insurmountable, who does he endorse?


My take:

Unless someone either makes the pitch of the century or makes the gaffe of the century, I think there is not a compelling enough reason to endorse before March 4. Endorsing Obama could be seen as a bandwagon move and endorsing Clinton could be seen as both toeing the party line and saying Obama has fatal weaknesses.

The whole reason to get an Edwards endorsement at this point would be to win Ohio and possibly Pennsylvania. So if the endorsement were to mean anything outside of the Convention, then it would have to come in the next 10-12 days.

I'm not sure that, on the whole, Edwards is served by making an endorsement here. If the thing is still as close as it is now after North Carolina in May, the last decent sized state to vote, then he's better off leveraging his power in Denver. He won't implicitly criticize either candidate and he won't have to deal with the backlash from the other person's supporters. He'll have enough pledged delegates to be a prize in Denver and he can play up his role as the conscience of the process by calling repeatedly for economic populism to be a centerpiece of both candidates' campaigns.

But that's just me.

What do ya'll think?

Kick ass and think endorsements.

Okay Hillary and Barack.

Make me want you.


Kick ass and take names.

Been gone for a while. This is going to be very stream of consciousness.

*Los Angeles smells GREAT after it rains. Seriously. But, we're in a drought, so this is something I've experienced, like, twice.

*We did the Bay Area for part of the Holidays. I love the Bay and I totally appreciate getting to jog in the redwoods. Totally did not appreciate the 5-day sore throat this gave me. Also, if you get a chance to go to a party in the Berkeley hills at a house with a panoramic view from Mt. Tam to the San Mateo Bridge during a winter sunset then you should go, even if it is just for the sunset. If the party is full of family members, good wine, and great food, then so much the better.

*Tyche and her family are good together for about 2.5 days, after that I suggest shin guards and one of those weird looking soft helmet things that soccer players use to prevent concussions. On a related note, there are few things as surpsingly disappointing as a banal "Jesus Loves You" Christmas Day homily. And I say that as an a person with no particular religious affiliation.

*New Orleans continues to be a mix of devestation and slow return. Comparing this time last year to this year, the amount of rebuilding and population growth is palpable. There are still massive problems - infrastructure, political, justice system, health care system, housing - but the change is hopeful. The culture that makes New Orleans New Orleans still shines through, though it will take awhile before it becomes as robust as it was.

*Case in point: New Year's at Tipitina's, a NOLA institution. Featuring Galactic, a NOLA funk band that is one of the few contemporary bands that can kick ass the way The Meters and JB and Parliament/Funkadelic did. Which is where Tyche and I along with my brother and his fiance ended up. Got there at about 9:45 and stayed until about 3AM. Galactic was even better live than on their CD's. But it was the entire scene, an alchemical mixture of drunken frat boys/sorority sisters in town for the various bowl games, recent "brain gain" young people there to rebuild, old school NOLA burnouts, southern fried hippies (think Asheville and Athens), and the usual number of funk-stoners that made it an utterly NOLA gathering. Well, that and the music. New Or-Lee-Annes knows how to party. Seriously.

*And as I stood there, about halfway back in the room, taking in the entire scene, the people, the music, the mixed scents of sweat, mixed drinks, spilled beer, tobacco, and marijuana all at New Year's on the cusp of 2008, I thought, "This is history in the making. People in this town are going to remember the years after the storm as something. It will be an era, a time spoken of as "a time when". And my brother is right in the middle of it and here I am right in the middle of this. This is going to be a thing."

*2008 is going to be a thing, too.

*The general election is going to be close, unless Bloomberg launches a 3rd party bid. Then it's the Democrats in a blow-out. Having said that, this year it is the Democrats' race to lose.

*About two years ago I wrote a few essays/longwinded blog comments about the coming crack-up of the GOP coalition between the Main Streeters and the Wall Streeters. Main Streeters were your Christianists and aspects of the small business community, Wall Streeters were your corporate owning class types. The latter use the former as foot soldiers to elect people like W who speak about values and proceed to rape the country and embark on pre-emptive wars. But this year, the Main Streeters finally have their own genuine candidate in Mike Huckabee. I think the crack-up is upon us. This is one of the reasons why I think this election is the Democrats to lose.

*Of course that means that who the Democratic nominee is becomes even more important than it was in 2004. There is an opportunity to get a functioning progressive into the White House and we need to take that opportunity. My choice is Edwards, clearly the most progressive and most populist of the Democratic contenders.

*Obama is good too, but it worries me that he chooses to make it difficult for citizen's organizations like ACORN and labor unions to get his campaign's attention and that he uses rhetoric and literature that calls groups like us "special interests" as if we played in the same sandbox with energy companies and Big Pharma. I wonder how open he would be to groups like us once he's in the White House. And believe me, we are going to be a big reason that core progressive voters show up at the polls this year.

That's all for now.

Kick ass and take names.

From Wade Rathke's Chief Organizer blog giving the insider's perspective on how the questions for the event today were put together.

Here's an except:

 There will be 7 questions that run the gamut of ACORN’s interests in low- and moderate-income communities around the country.

1. Maximum Eligible Participation: getting all qualified and eligible citizens for any federal program to fully participate in the program.

2. Protecting Our Assets: stopping predatory lending and moving forward on better financial services.

3. Citizenship: helping immigrants become citizens.

4. Rebuilding American Cities: the call for a Marshall plan and a community impact assessment for all neighborhoods confronting developers with public support.

5. Improving Income, Wages, and Working Conditions: show us the money!

6. Katrina and Rebuilding New Orleans: this is more than a symbol to ACORN, it’s personal!

7. Protecting the Right to Vote: we have had enough of voter suppression and want a fully entitled citizenship.

Each member has a one-page scorecard and a small stub of a pencil prepared for them, so that they can rank each candidate and his or her response and keep a running straw poll of their thinking to input to fellow members not attending and the leadership across the country. The scoring is tough and runs from “excellent” to “failed.” We are tired and won’t take it no more!

Kick ass and make an informed choice.

ACORN Presidential Forum from Philadelphia will feature ACORN leaders asking Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich questions about the issues that affect low and moderate income Americans and about supportuing the work that ACORN members engage in every day.

The fun starts at 1PM EDT/10AM PDT and will be simulcast on the web as well as blogged by several national and Philadelphia-area blogs. There is also a blog anyone can join run by ACORN set up specifically for this event. You can also find short descriptions of the bloggers who will be in atttendance and who will be posting about the event here.

Candidates themselves will be the last up in the event, after introductions and explanations of the most important issues to ACORN members. Each candidate will go one-on-one with a group of ACORN leaders who will ask direct questions and expect direct answers. Each candidate will get a minimum of 35 minutes.

The whole thing starts in half an hour. See you there.

Kick ass and make an informed choice.